ORIGINAL PAPER
Premature mortality from respiratory disease attributable to PM2.5 exposure in Lanzhou, Gansu Province, China
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1
Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China
(Department of Health Statistics and Epidemiology, School of Public Health)
2
Lanzhou Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Lanzhou, China
These authors had equal contribution to this work
Online publication date: 2026-03-04
Corresponding author
Xiaoning Liu
Lanzhou University, Department of Health Statistics and Epidemiology, School of Public Health, 199 Donggang West Road, Chengguan District, Lanzhou, Gansu Province 730000, China
HIGHLIGHTS
- Particulate matter 2.5 (PM2.5) fell in Lanzhou, China, yet premature respiratory deaths did not decline.
- Aging and baseline mortality rises offset air quality improvements.
- Global exposure mortality model (GEMM) model used to estimate district-level PM2.5-attributable deaths.
- Elderly and urban districts bear higher PM2.5 health burdens.
- Targeted policies needed for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and lung cancer disparities.
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ABSTRACT
Objectives: Exposure to particulate matter 2.5 (PM2.5) remains a critical public health issue in China. Understanding its spatial distribution and associated
mortality burden is crucial for developing effective preventive strategies. Material and Methods: This study analyzed PM2.5 distribution
and estimated premature mortality from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and lung cancer attributable to PM2.5. The analysis covered
different districts and 3 age groups in Lanzhou City, using the global exposure mortality model (GEMM). Results: From 2014 to 2023, PM2.5 concentrations were significantly reduced city-wide. However, the number of PM2.5-attributable premature deaths did not decline substantially. In some districts, these deaths even increased against a backdrop of rising overall mortality. The majority of premature deaths occurred in people aged ≥65 years. Lowering PM2.5 concentrations remains important for controlling mortality from both diseases. However, the trends were not entirely consistent, indicating a complex relationship between PM2.5 and mortality. Conclusions: Particulate matter 2.5 continues to have a substantial impact
on health. Sustained efforts in air quality improvement and targeted health interventions for the elderly population are necessary. Int J Occup
Med Environ Health. 2026;39(1)